2016, Michigan — March 7, 2016 at 6:21 pm

About Trump winning Michigan… Yeah, no.



Donald Trump has a good chance of winning Michigan. The GOP primary that is.

And that’s the last time — barring complete disaster, near Apocalypse or freak Canadian Godzilla invasion  — he’ll ever have a good chance of winning Michigan.

Here’s what the NBC/Wall St. Journal/Marist poll found when it polled hypothetical match-ups between Trump and the likely Democratic nominees:

Screen Shot 2016-03-07 at 6.02.59 PM

That’s probably a bit generous to Democrats.

But a Monmouth University poll finds also that as 22 percent of Republicans in the state would not back Trump if he were there party’s nominee, which echoes a Democracy Corps study that found about 1 out of 5 Republicans could be persuaded to abandon their party in the general election if Trump is on the ballot.

Those losses would likely make up for any potential white working-class Democrats who didn’t vote for Mitt Romney and could be persuaded by Trump’s argument that they are overpaid.

That would likely leave the Democratic nominee with around the 9.5 percent advantage Obama had in 2012 without investing any significant resources in the state.

There are lots of reasons Trump would lose this state normally. But with Rick Snyder’s immediate legacy of not filling potholes with asphalt but filling kids with lead instead, this should be a particularly bad year for the GOP.

So when you hear Trump exclaim he could win Michigan, we’re done with authoritarian CEOs who love to win. Thank you.

There are lots of real things to worry about for November. So let’s worry about those.

[Photo by Gage Skidmore | Flickr]