At least one analyst has decided that we can officially call 2014 a “GOP Wave” if Republicans pick up Senate seats in state President Obama won in 2012 including Colorado, Iowa and Michigan.
With Mark Udall consistently leading “personhood” advocate Cory Gardner in Kentucky and Gary Peters beginning to pull away from “personhood” advocate Terri Lynn Land, “personhood” advocate Joni Ernst in Iowa represents Republicans best chance of the three — though Democrats have proven they know how to get votes out in the Hawkeye state, especially using early voting.
If Republicans taking some Obama states constitutes a wave elections, than Democrats taking some Romney states would have to suggest the opposite would be true.
The best opportunities to take GOP seats in states Mitt won as he got trounced are in Kentucky and Georgia. (There’s also some hope Democrats could keep could Republicans from taking a seat in red South Dakota, but not much hope — yet.)
Democrat Michelle Nunn seems to be closing in on David Perdue. But Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has opened up a small lead over Alison Lundergan Grimes, as evidence by a new internal poll from Grimes that only shows her up by 1 percent.
Kentucky is the one red state that did Obamacare exactly right. It created its own exchange, expanded Medicaid and engaged in a full-throated outreach campaign. The result was the second best reduction in its uninsured of any state in the Union.
In August, Governor Steve Beshear announced that 521,000 people in the state had gained coverage through the exchange,
Mitch McConnell has hedged — Google: “lied” — about what would happen if the Affordable Care Act is repealed “root and branch” as he’s vowed. When he’s says the state’s Kynect exchange is “unconnected” to Obamacare, he’s saying, “You’re too dumb to realize I’m promising to increase my state’s uninsured population by 40 percent.”
Daily Kos‘ Jed Lewison has made the case for why Grimes should embrace the health law and go after McConnell’s deceptions on the issue:
If Grimes makes saving Kynect her number one campaign issue, there’s no doubt McConnell will accuse her of being an Obama stooge. Well, newsflash: He’s going to do that anyway. So she might as well tout the benefits of her alleged stoogery—and point out that if McConnell gets his way, Kentucky will pay a very real price. Not only will Democratic base voters appreciate that message, but she might actually convince some of the people in eastern and western Kentucky that she needs to pry from McConnell’s grip.
Joe Sonka — your guy in Kentucky — has pointed out Grimes is likely to lose coal country regardless of what she does due to the D next to her name. But by embracing the health law and explaining what could be taken away if the Affordable Care Act is repealed, she’s making her best case to the most vulnerable in a state that experimented with reforming its health care system — and has finally got it right.
McConnell is going to use Obama and the hyped up cancelation notices around Obamacare against Grimes. So why doesn’t she try to swing that energy right back at him, while exploiting the popularity of Beshear who led the Kynect effort, in the last few weeks of the campaign.
I’m not a Kentuckian or an expert with a pollster to alert me of the landmines I might be stepping on. But here’s the ad I’d like to see Grimes run:
Mitch McConnell has had government health care for decades. But what’s his plan for you?
[Image: Cancellation notice.]
If Mitch McConnell gets his way, about half a million Kentuckians will get a letter in their mailbox that tells them that their insurance is canceled. Another 748,000 of Kentucky’s seniors on Medicare will see their preventative care benefit taken away as prescription drug prices go up for thousands. Kentucky is finally fixing its health care system.
[Image: Steve Beshear talking to people.]
More work needs to be done but Mitch McConnell just wants to take your health insurance away, so he can keep his.
Tell Mitch McConnell its time for him to put Kentucky’s health over his own.
Republicans have feared health care reform for decades, knowing it could firmly entrench Democrats as “the generous protector of middle-class interests.” Grimes could go down ignoring a remarkable achievement on behalf of the people of Kentucky. Or she could make McConnell pay for bowing to the extremes of his party with promises that would rob millions of Americans of a security they’ve never known.
[Image by Gage Skidmore | Flickr]