New poll shows Mark Schauer and Gary Peters with solid leads among likely voters


New polling by Clarity Campaign Labs shows Democrats Mark Schauer and Gary Peters with sizable leads over Republicans Rick Snyder and Terri Lynn Land in the statewide races for Governor and U.S. Senator among likely voters.

Snyder’s approval rating is now less than 40% (39%) while nearly half of the voters polled (46%) disapprove of his performance. Schauer leads him 47-40%, a 7-point gap that is well outside the margin of error of +/- 2.55%. Among independent voters, Schauer has a 5-point lead, 38-33%.

Gary Peters, facing an opponent who has had no public events of significance for many months, leads 46-40% over Land.

Pollster John Hagner, Senior Vice President of Clarity Campaign Labs, analyzed the results this way:

With improved name recognition and continued dissolution with the direction Gov. Snyder is taking the state, Mark Schauer has the ability to continue building on this lead. With undecided voters disapproving of Gov. Snyder’s performance by a huge 44% to 10% margin, a full 40% of these voters identify as Democrats with only 26% identifying as Republicans.

Full polling results can be found HERE.

Democrats are understandably upbeat about the new numbers which show Governor Snyder’s popularity on the wane as he remains one of the country’s least-liked governors. Land’s strategy of staying out of the public eye and letting the Koch brothers spend money on her behalf appears to be backfiring.

“Michiganders are seeing right through former RNC Committeewoman Terri Lynn Land’s secret campaign to hide behind dark money allies and billionaire oil tycoons like the Koch brothers, said Michigan Democratic Party Communications Director Joshua Pugh. “Land is clearly trying to buy this U.S. Senate seat.”

These numbers show that the enormous cash advantage enjoyed by the two millionaire Republicans aren’t enough to make up for poor job performance and refusing to engage with votes.

One more thing: this poll has Democratic voter turnout 7% more than Republican turnout. This is an assumption that is generous given Democrats’ propensity to stay home during midterm elections. Just look at how we got clobbered in 2010 because of it. However, Dems are fired up this year and are far more prepared to get out the vote (GOTV) than they ever have been before so I’m confident that this assumption will bear out. However, it’s up to everyone one of us to make sure that it does. That means YOU!

Schauer/Peters photo by Anne C. Savage, special to Eclectablog. GOTMFV photo by Chris Savage.

  • judyms9

    Glad to see Gary Peters campaign has a push-back TV ad showing the Kochs looming large behind Land. The spectre of dark forces is always offputting.

  • So this means that the State employees Union has more money than the Koch brothers

  • Scott U

    Did you see the crosstabs? Peters and Schauer are leading even though 86% of those surveyed are white – exit polls showed only 77% of 2012 voters and 84% of 2006 voters were white.

    Also, they weighted it so that Dems only have a 7-point advantage in party ID. In 2012, that gap was 11 points.

    If the electorate more closely resembles previous electorates than it resembles this poll, then Republicans are in even worse trouble than this poll suggests.

    Let’s make it happen – GOTV in Detroit, in Saginaw, Flint, GR, Muskegon, and everywhere else!!

    • Is that true? 11% of turnout is 2012 was Dem ID? I didn’t realize that. Thanks for pointing all of this out.

      • Scott U

        Oops, sorry for the confusion – Dems had an 11-point advantage in 2012 (41-30%) over Republicans in Michigan. The “exit polls” tab at this page has the full breakdown:

        • The fault is mine. I understood you completely but, for some reason, what I thought and what I typed were two entirely different things. Thanks for the link. I’ll follow up on that.

  • donaldduck

    This is all you need to know about the outfit that conducted the poll: (clarity campaigns)

    “We are a start-up founded in 2012, bringing together many years of expertise at ISSI, NCEC, Democratic state parties and national party committees. Our team has worked on races across the country, from the historic Obama for America campaign to Governor, Senate, and Congressional elections to local issue advocacy campaigns and everything in between.”

    For a clearer and more accurate look at the polling for the two races look at the RCP average:

    • I applaud and encourage your irrationally exuberant over-confidence. Please continue, Governor.

  • gaspare

    Shamelessly wrote a diary on KOS from your writing above. Yes, I credited you. Hopefully, it gets a little traction. Keep up the great work.

    • Thanks for the heads up. I republished to various Kos groups.

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  • Delphine

    boooooooooo! Rick has done a great job you people bitch about everything that is good. I can see it now another Dem. gets in office and all jobs gone again. And no money.

    • Michiganmitch

      Any job gains during the Synder administration are of Granholm’s and Obama’s green programs and Obama’s saving of the auto industry. No newbies due to RTW or the big tax cuts to businesses.

    • Kathi Geukes

      Uh…no…no he hasn’t….first he signed Right not to Work…..How many jobs has that brought to our state….oh….12,000 left the state?? Ok….what about all the emergency managers put in place…oh…they haven’t helped at all?? Well maybe he should look for another company he can shut down so they can move the jobs to China like he did with Gateway….Get a clue fool!!!!!

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  • Larry Parsons