Barack Obama, Obamacare — December 13, 2013

Obamacare Friday Update: 680K Private, 2.5M Total & Rising FAST


A couple of weeks ago I posted a detailed analysis of how Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) enrollments are going so far. Starting today, every Friday I’ll be posting updated numbers here at Eclectablog. Full details can be viewed daily at

In a comment from a Mother Jones article about Obamacare enrollments, I received the highest praise I could ever hope for:

I’m honored beyond words.

I’m also extremely happy to report that thanks to California finally updating their official numbers (partly spoiled by yesterday’s November HHS Report), the official tally has shattered through the 600K mark, and now stands at:

Private Plan Enrollments: 679,743
Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 1,829,180
Total: 2,508,923

Meanwhile, check out the trend/projection line, which has jumped from around 3.7 million up to around 4.2 million by 3/31/14.

This is both bad and good. The bad news is that the CBO projection for the end of the enrollment period–which was never declared a “requirement for success” by the HHS Dept. but which has, nonetheless, become etched in stone to the media and public at large as being a “must achieve” figure–is 7 million private plan enrollments, leaving the ACA exchanges 2.8 million short at this point.

The good is that even the updated projection line is about to be left in the dust.

Take a close look at the California figures:
35,364 from 10/1 – 11/02 = 1,072 per day
71,723 from 11/03 – 11/30 = 2,656 per day
49,056 from 12/01 – 12/07 = 7,008 per day
and finally, check this out:
another 31,000 on 12/09-12/10 alone…that’s 15,500 per day.

From California.

By itself.

With 680K private enrollments through 12/10, they’ll have to hit about 57,000 per day from now through the end of March.

That’s a tall order, but at the moment, California alone is handling over 27% of that.

7 million is more than doable.

ACA Enrollments through 12/10/13
ACA Enrollments through 12/10/13

I wanted to take a moment to thank the dozen or so folks from Daily Kos who have been assisting with this endeavor, including:

ArcticStones, Girdwood, page in seattle, ybruti, MotherShipper, gchaucer2, Rolfyboy6, gloriasb, Mokurai, dadadata, mistletoe, Minnesota Deb, Bob the Old Soldier, CJB, timmyc, rsmpdx, pierre9045, rugbymom, Al Fondy, bastrop, “Ramu” and blue aardvark.

I want to especially recognize both ArcticStones and ybruti, both of whom I’m recognizing by name on the chart going forward.

ArcticStones has been absolutely ferocious in his pursuit of the latest numbers from more than a dozen states. In fact, he’s provided so many of the sources recently that I’ve added him to the chart as a co-author.

Meanwhile, ybruti has provided a bounty of important information and resources regarding California’s Medi-Cal program and the Medicaid expansion system in general. Most of the “orange special” numbers are provided thanks to her diligent research.

  • Fabian

    “a “must achieve” figure–is 7 million private plan enrollments, leaving the ACA exchanges 3.8 million short at this point”

    Given that you said the current projection is 4.2 million, that should probably say 2.8 million short at this point, since 3.8+4.2=8.
    Keep up the good work.

    • Brainwrap

      Whoops! Nice catch, thanks!

  • Who collects Affordable Health Care Act penalties? The IRS? Is it possible that The Affordable Health Care Act was never designed to be affordable? Is it possible that it was purposely designed by the Ruling Class to profit from the penalties they knew would be generated by employers who could not afford health care for their employees?
    There is evidence that the Ruling Class own both the IRS and the Federal Reserve. There is also evidence they rob other accounts that are designed for institutions such as The pentagon, Social Security and other retirement investments and that most corporate insurance companies are owned by the Ruling Class, therefore, they win whether or not people sign up for Obama care. Their insurance corporations take in billions, but only pay out millions. Is Obama Care just another revenue stream for them?

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