2016, 2018, Donald Trump — September 10, 2017

What do scared House Republicans know that we don’t?

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Three big retirements inch Dems towards taking 24 seats — could Upton and Trott be next?

Make no mistake: Picking up the 24 seats Democrats need to flip the House in 2018 is going to be tough.

It’s going to be tough because the GOP has gerrymandered America for its pleasure while building up massive campaign infrastructure that doesn’t take midterms off. It will be tough because the press will do everything it can to make Trump seem sane, even though he’s doing everything he can to suppress voters while doing almost nothing to prevent Russian hacking.

And it will get a lot tougher if Republicans pass tax breaks for the rich that will flood new confidence and millions and millions of dollars into Republican coffers.

But perhaps Republican members of the House of Representatives know something we don’t know.

NBC News reports:

On Wednesday, Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Wash. — whose district broke for Hillary Clinton in 2016, 47.7% to 44.7% — announced he wasn’t seeking re-election. The next day, Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa. — the leader of the moderate House Republicans, whose district went for Trump, 51.8% to 44.2% — made the same move.

Add these two winnable seats to that of Ileana Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, who represents a district Clinton won by almost 20 percent. She announced her retirement during the previews of the Trump Administration.

And that’s not all!

Trott is the most “vulnerable” GOP House Member in Michigan but still has a +60 percent chance of winning, according to Decision Desk HQ, the first poll watchers to publish a model for 2018’s House elections. In the same model Upton has an almost 80 percent chance of holding his seat.

But take incumbency away and suddenly the man behind that model proclaims…

And that’s not all!

There’s this from Swing Left:

And this from the Decision Desk HQ blog:

If there is any sign of momentum building for Democrats heading into 2018, it’s the number of candidates running in Safe Republican seats. That’s exactly what is happening in Wisconsin’s fifth district, where a third Democrat has joined the race to depose Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner (R).

We know the SEIU is investing big to increase progressive turnout in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — key states for winning back the House and redistricting into the next decade. We also know Trump is also slightly more popular in these states that made him president, though still far from popular.

What I’m wondering is what these retiring House Members know that we don’t.

  • Doug Scott

    IF SEIU is going to work in Michigan to turn out Progressives then there must be ‘coordination’ (whatever is legal) with key Michigan County Democratic Parties. Otherwise we will be much less effective as we usually are in the midterms.

  • Mtnchippewa

    Add to this that I wonder how many other Republicans–like me–won’t switch sides, but can’t bring ourselves to continue to vote for the morons who’ve taken over our party.

  • flame821

    I think a lot of the GOPpers want to get out before the SHTF and they get tarnished with the same brush that will be used to paint this administration. I know Charlie Dent (our children were schoolmates) and while I don’t agree with his politics I do know that he’s an old fashioned Republican; a moderate. He preferred being in a Congress that actually worked, he enjoyed arguing across the aisle and finding a solution everyone could live with. But now he spends as much time fighting the extremists in his own party as he does anything else. He sees the direction the GOP is moving in and he wants no part of it. His seat would have been safe but he can’t live with himself under the current GOP dogma.

  • Jaapiejo

    It’s a scary time when sensible republican moderates have to throw in the towel because they are losing ground to extremists. It’s especially sad because it means the republican voice in the house gets taken less seriously.

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