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AFTERNOON GRAB BAG: Snyder vs. Schauer – the race heats up

Several items of interest to report in Michigan’s 2014 gubernatorial campaign this afternoon.

First, another poll out today shows Mark Schauer in a statistical dead heat with incumbent Republican governor Rick Snyder. This poll, by Vanguard Public Affairs, has Snyder up by just 3.2 points with a margin of error of 4 points. In the same poll, Gary Peters is ahead of Terri Lynn Land in their U.S. Senate race by a full 7 points, Godfrey Dillard trails Republican Ruth Johnson for Secretary of State by 3.6 points with nearly a third undecided, and Democrat Mark Totten down by 8 points against incumbent Attorney General Bill Schuette with more than a quarter of the respondents still undecided.…

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AUDIO: Father of Michigan’s Emergency Manager law Al Pscholka convinced Rick Snyder is beloved in Detroit

Al Pscholka, Father of the Emergency Manager law, with Gov. Rick Snyder after the bill signing

When Public Act 4, Michigan’s amped-up Emergency Manager law, was signed into law in early 2011, it was immediately put to use in Benton Harbor. It was the first time the new version of the law, which allows the state to impose an unelected person in charge of an entire city and gives them the power to dismiss local elected officials, was used. Benton Harbor was “represented” in the state House by Al Pscholka and, as it turns out, Pscholka was the author of Public Act 4.…

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Third poll this week has outstanding news for Michigan Democrats, Schauer up by 2.2 points over Snyder

It’s been a terrific week of polling for Michigan Democrats. I’ve written about two polls (HERE and HERE) that statistical ties for Mark Schauer and Mark Totten with Gary Peters pulling away from Terri Lynn Land.

Yesterday, a USA Today poll conducted by Suffolk University gives even better news.

Here’s the synopsis:

  • Mark Schauer leads Rick Snyder for Governor by 2.2 points (45.2/43.0%)
  • Gary Peters is up over Terri Lynn Land for U.S. Senate by 8.8 point (45.6/36.8%)
  • The top response given by respondents when asked what they thought of when they heard her name was “Dislike her/General negative mentions” while the top response for Gary Peters was “Like him/General positive mentions”
  • Godfrey Dillard is ahead of Ruth Johnson for Secretary of State by 3.6 points (39.8/36.2%)
  • Mark Totten is beating Bill Schuette for Attorney General by 6.4 points (42.8/36.4%)

The poll was conducted September 6-10 and has a margin of error of 4.4%.…

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NEW POLL: After 30 years in office Schuette’s favorable rating only 17.2% and other good news for Michigan Dems

Mark Totten, photo by Anne C. Savage, special to Eclectablog

Yesterday I reported on new polling numbers show great gains by Michigan Democrats. Another new poll out this morning by Detroit News-WDIV (Local 4) confirms those numbers. (Cross-tabs are HERE.)

The race for Attorney General continues to be surprisingly competitive and shows how weak a candidate Bill Schuette is.

Schuette started his career in public office nearly 30 years ago when he was elected to Congress in November of 1984. Since then, he’s been the Director of the Michigan Department of Agriculture, a state Senator, a judge on the Michigan Court of Appeals, and our state’s Attorney General.…

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New poll shows Attorney General Bill Schuette is beatable, Gov. Snyder is in trouble, and Terri Lynn Land is history

Mark Totten, photo by Anne C. Savage, special to Eclectablog

A new poll out by PPP has some terrific news for Democrats. Mark Schauer is still in a statistical dead heat with Governor Rick Snyder, down just a single point – 42-43%. Snyder is under water with respect to his favorability with 51% of those polled holding viewing him unfavorably compared with just 43% that give him a “favorable” rating. Considering that he’s been in his job for nearly four years, this is a clear indication that he’s in deep trouble. Schauer, in contrast, is clearly getting his name out there.…

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Democrat Mark Schauer leads Gov. Rick Snyder in most recent poll, Snyder spokeswoman calls EPIC-MRA poll “garbage”

Gotta love a headline like this: “Schauer edges ahead of Snyder, 45% to 43%, in new governor race poll”.

Mark Schauer is one of the most patient, methodical politicians I’ve ever seen. In my interview with him last fall, we had this exchange:

Eclectablog: One of the things that I’m hearing from folks on my blog and elsewhere online is that they just don’t know who you are because they’re not from our area. Anne and I know you because you were our Congressman but that’s not the case outside of the districts that you’ve served in and you need support statewide.…
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More Americans describe themselves as “independent,” reflecting dissatisfaction with politics

Reaching them is important, but not necessarily easy

There are two things I want to do in today’s post. First, point you all to the Pew Research Center’s political polarization report, and their political typology, released last month, in case you haven’t seen these yet. Both are full of great data.

Second, I wanted to pull out some of the data on political independents to talk about, since a larger and larger portion of the country identifies as politically independent, and with the mid-term elections coming up, this group is, as usual, a hot topic of discussion. But neither of the two main stories told about this growing voting bloc – that they all hold moderate views somewhere in between that of Republicans and Democrats, or the more current political-science-based thinking that independents are really only “partisans in disguise” tells the whole picture.…

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POLL: Mark Schauer now tied with Rick Snyder, Terri Lynn Land sinking into obscurity

Public Policy Polling’s latest Michigan poll has very good news for Democrats. Let’s start out with the very best news: after trailing in all previous polling, Mark Schauer is now in a 40-40 dead heat with incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder. What’s more, Snyder’s numbers are down four points from December and he has a negative job approval of 54% vs. only 37% who think he’s doing a good job.

Mark Schauer is still introducing himself to the voters in Michigan and every poll shows him doing better and better. Rick Snyder, on the other hand, who virtually every Michigander knows, appears to be cratering.…

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How to beat the polluter lobby

As I’m sure you know, the Environmental Protection Agency released draft rules this week calling for a 30% reduction in carbon emissions from power plants by 2030. This, of course, is not going to happen without a fight, as polluters always claim that new or stricter pollution limits will destroy their businesses and the economy. Initial public reaction to the rule is positive, but polluters and their allies will come out swinging. Here’s how supporters of the new rules can be most effective in the fight to come:
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We need EPA pollution standards — candidates shouldn’t be afraid to say so too

Just like with Obamacare, the key is playing offense

The Environmental Protection Agency is going to release rules next week limiting the amount of carbon dioxide pollution that can be released from power plants. Amidst a lot of worry about the impact this will have on Democrats in an off-year election, apparently the optimistic take on this among Washington Democratic strategists is that it’s an opportunity for Democrats from conservative states to show their “independence” by disagreeing with Obama and his EPA on the need for air pollution standards. As Greg Sargent reports in the Washington Post, the assumption is that red state Democrats should come out against the rules:

“It’s an opportunity to say, ‘I disagree with the president, and he’s wrong,'” a Dem strategist advising Senators in competitive races says.…
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