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Democrat Mark Schauer leads Gov. Rick Snyder in most recent poll, Snyder spokeswoman calls EPIC-MRA poll “garbage”

Gotta love a headline like this: “Schauer edges ahead of Snyder, 45% to 43%, in new governor race poll”.

Mark Schauer is one of the most patient, methodical politicians I’ve ever seen. In my interview with him last fall, we had this exchange:

Eclectablog: One of the things that I’m hearing from folks on my blog and elsewhere online is that they just don’t know who you are because they’re not from our area. Anne and I know you because you were our Congressman but that’s not the case outside of the districts that you’ve served in and you need support statewide.…
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More Americans describe themselves as “independent,” reflecting dissatisfaction with politics

Reaching them is important, but not necessarily easy

There are two things I want to do in today’s post. First, point you all to the Pew Research Center’s political polarization report, and their political typology, released last month, in case you haven’t seen these yet. Both are full of great data.

Second, I wanted to pull out some of the data on political independents to talk about, since a larger and larger portion of the country identifies as politically independent, and with the mid-term elections coming up, this group is, as usual, a hot topic of discussion. But neither of the two main stories told about this growing voting bloc – that they all hold moderate views somewhere in between that of Republicans and Democrats, or the more current political-science-based thinking that independents are really only “partisans in disguise” tells the whole picture.…

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POLL: Mark Schauer now tied with Rick Snyder, Terri Lynn Land sinking into obscurity

Public Policy Polling’s latest Michigan poll has very good news for Democrats. Let’s start out with the very best news: after trailing in all previous polling, Mark Schauer is now in a 40-40 dead heat with incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder. What’s more, Snyder’s numbers are down four points from December and he has a negative job approval of 54% vs. only 37% who think he’s doing a good job.

Mark Schauer is still introducing himself to the voters in Michigan and every poll shows him doing better and better. Rick Snyder, on the other hand, who virtually every Michigander knows, appears to be cratering.…

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How to beat the polluter lobby

As I’m sure you know, the Environmental Protection Agency released draft rules this week calling for a 30% reduction in carbon emissions from power plants by 2030. This, of course, is not going to happen without a fight, as polluters always claim that new or stricter pollution limits will destroy their businesses and the economy. Initial public reaction to the rule is positive, but polluters and their allies will come out swinging. Here’s how supporters of the new rules can be most effective in the fight to come:
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We need EPA pollution standards — candidates shouldn’t be afraid to say so too

Just like with Obamacare, the key is playing offense

The Environmental Protection Agency is going to release rules next week limiting the amount of carbon dioxide pollution that can be released from power plants. Amidst a lot of worry about the impact this will have on Democrats in an off-year election, apparently the optimistic take on this among Washington Democratic strategists is that it’s an opportunity for Democrats from conservative states to show their “independence” by disagreeing with Obama and his EPA on the need for air pollution standards. As Greg Sargent reports in the Washington Post, the assumption is that red state Democrats should come out against the rules:

“It’s an opportunity to say, ‘I disagree with the president, and he’s wrong,’” a Dem strategist advising Senators in competitive races says.…
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Poll of “Michigan voters” leaves out Detroit. On purpose.

Because how could Detroit voters' views be relevant to what happens to their city?

The Detroit Journalism Cooperative published a poll this week investigating views of the proposed “grand bargain” to pull Detroit out of bankruptcy. The good news is that the study finds strong support for the state pitching in with funding to help preserve workers’ pensions and the DIA. As Kevyn Orr tries to persuade Lansing Republicans to sign off on the deal, it’s good to know that he has voters behind him. But here's the thing: the poll only sampled voters who live outside the city of Detroit. 600 interviews, none of them within the city. This was intentional, not an oversight. Mlive offers the rationale that: "Because the poll is intended to measure Michigan voters’ attitudes toward Detroit, the survey does not include interviews with Detroit voters."
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Over three years into his term and Rick Snyder is still under water in his favorability rating

It’s been more than three years since Rick Snyder took the reins of power in Michigan and, despite having Republicans in charge of both chambers of the legislature along with all of the major administration posts, his favorability is still under 50% with 52% giving him failing grade.

Among the data was a question asking how voters would rate the job Rick Snyder has done as Michigan’s governor. Since Snyder is a Republican and voters in Detroit are overwhelmingly Democratic, you might expect Snyder to do really well outside the city. But 52% of voters rated Gov. Snyder as having done a fair to poor job; 46% thought he’d done a pretty good to excellent job.…
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Good news hasn’t sold the public on Obamacare. Here’s why. And how to fix it.

Focus on values and make the other side defend

There has been lots of great Obamacare news over the last few weeks. But public opinion of the law hasn't improved. The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll has been tracking this issue since 2009, before the bill passed. Their most recent poll, conducted at the end of April, found 36% saying the law is a good idea, consistent with the range in the mid to high 30s that they have seen the whole time (link is PDF). Other pollsters, asking somewhat different questions, show higher or lower support for the law, but the same consistency over time. Why so little movement?
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New poll shows Mark Schauer and Gary Peters with solid leads among likely voters

New polling by Clarity Campaign Labs shows Democrats Mark Schauer and Gary Peters with sizable leads over Republicans Rick Snyder and Terri Lynn Land in the statewide races for Governor and U.S. Senator among likely voters.

Snyder’s approval rating is now less than 40% (39%) while nearly half of the voters polled (46%) disapprove of his performance. Schauer leads him 47-40%, a 7-point gap that is well outside the margin of error of +/- 2.55%. Among independent voters, Schauer has a 5-point lead, 38-33%.

Gary Peters, facing an opponent who has had no public events of significance for many months, leads 46-40% over Land.…

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UPDATED: Karl Rove’s American Crossroads poll says Land up over Peters, Dem strongholds under-represented

You can’t unskew a poll this skewed up

Updated twice below.

Karl Rove, the man who was absolutely certain that Mitt Romney was going to pull out an astonishing victory over Barack Obama despite all evidence to the contrary, has commissed a new series of polls that say Republicans are going to take back the Senate. Michigan was among the states polled and they have Terri Lynn Land, the invisible candidate, up 5 points over Congressman Gary Peters in the race to fill Carl Levin’s U.S. Senate seat.

When you look at the data from the poll commissioned by Rove’s American Crossroads, you can see why.…

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