Obamacare Friday Update: Private 2.4M, Medicaid/CHIP 4.5M, 10M Total

Full details available at ACASignups.net

The biggest news since last Friday was Monday’s release of the official HHS Dept. December enrollment numbers. I had the Private QHP Enrollment total as 2.137 million as of 12/31. HHS has the official tally as 2.153M as of 12/28. I love being 99% accurate! :)

In any event, the second biggest news as far as enrollments are concerned are the weird, seemingly contradictory Medicaid/CHIP numbers that have been released by HHS and CMS respectively. HHS gave the exchange-based number as 1.58 million as of 12/28…but the December CMS report gave it as 3.9 million as of 11/30. Obviously something was afoot, so I did some painstaking research to try and sort it all out. The result is this rather lengthy and “in the weeds” analysis.

The conclusion? The actual total number of Medicaid/CHIP enrollments thanks to the ACA since Oct. 1st may actually be closer to 6.4 million than 4.5 million. However, until I sort out a few things, I’m leaving the spreadsheet set to the 4.5M figure…for now.

In any event, even at the current 4.5M figure, the grand total–Private QHPs, Medicaid/CHIP expansion, Direct QHP enrollment and “Sub-26ers” on their parents accounts–has broken the psychological milestone of 10 Million.

Otherwise, a few normal updates:

KENTUCKY: (h/t to deaconblues)
Not much to say here, just steady improvement. Kentucky’s Private QHP Enrollments have gone up from 33,289 to 39,771, a 19% increase since January 2nd. Medicaid Enrollments are up from 100,359 to 122,328, a 22% increase. Kentucky is now up to 18% of their absurdly high CMS projection level.
MARYLAND: (h/t to dadadata)
Maryland’s private QHP enrollments went up about 10% in the first part of January, to 22,512, but the Medicaid numbers are confusing. According to the HHS report, as of 12/28 Maryland had 43,065 people enrolled in Medicaid via the exchange, but this update from the Maryland Health Connection states the number as only 29,517. However, they did also enroll a couple thousand more people via the automatic Primary Adult Care program, which cancels out some of this loss.

I’m not positive what to make of the 60,000 number, but the footnote certainly makes it look like this may be the true number of new Medicaid enrollees after separating out Medicaid renewals. This appears to account for the drop of 13,548, and suggests that (not including the PAC transfers), roughly 32% of all Medicaid enrollees were renewals. Assuming this is the case, these have now been separated out, and like Washington State, Maryland’s Medicaid numbers should now be “clean” going forward (I think).

COLORADO: (h/t to Sacramento Dem)
The latest Colorado update is significant not just because of the solid numbers (private QHP enrollments up 20% from 12/31 through 01/15, to 63,407; Medicaid/CHIP enrollments up 17.6% to 101,730), but also because the second report devoted to Medicaid expansion specifically states that the 101K does not include redeterminations (ie, renewals of existing Medicaid recipients).

Also note that these Medicaid applications may include more than one person each.

Colorado is now at about 69% of their CMS projection number with 59% of the enrollment period passed.

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  • judyms9

    The numbers will always be wobbly because of household composition, actual payments following enrollment and population mobility. But thank you for doing the math, not an easy task. Steady progress is what counts, and the ACA is certainly more successful in its time gear up than our two wars have been. The right has great patience for war but little for patients (Sorry. Couldn’t help myself.).

    • Brainwrap

      Thanks for your words of support :)

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